Can you believe the trade deadline is tomorrow? We have had seven days of trade scenarios and I wanted the eighth day to be a doozy. I wanted a trade that could bring major league talent to the club while also adding some depth to a very weak minor league system. Is there a trade that exists where a ball club could have its cake and eat it too? Probably not. And for this final edition, I wanted to have some fun. So save your “lOl ThIs TrAdE iS dUmB” takes because you’re right: it probably is. Nevertheless, let’s have some fun with our final trade leading up to the trade deadline:
Atlanta receives: OF Jasson Dominguez, OF Joey Gallo, RHP Cole Irvin, OF Ramón Laureano, RHP Luis Medina, and SS Trey Sweeney
Oakland receives: OF Michael Harris II
New York (AL) receives: LHP Sam Moll and RHP Frankie Montas
This would be an absolute haul for every team involved and I think it’s one that could work out. When you see the prospect haul that Luis Castillo was able to fetch, the New York Yankees would do well to get Frankie Montas and Sam Moll while retaining Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. So, yes, it’s a lot for the Yankees to give, but they also get to keep most of their high-level prospects. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s talk about the trade.
Holy Crap.
The Atlanta Braves would be giving up on rookie phenom Michael Harris II and his six years of control, which would mean they would need a lot in return. Atlanta would get Ramón Laureano and Cole Irvin from the Oakland Athletics in the exchange. The Braves could also go with Paul Blackburn instead of Irvin, but for this piece, we will focus on the pitcher with more control. Oakland would get a star to build around with plenty of control and perhaps even an extension. The Braves would get Laureano, who still has three years of control and Irvin with four.
This is a trade with plenty of risks, however, for Atlanta. Laureano burst onto the scene in 2018 and followed it up with a tremendous 2019 season. Since the 2020 season began, he has managed a measly .230 batting average and 105 OPS+. While he has been slightly better than league average, that would still be a downgrade offensively for Atlanta. However, there is hope that the 26-year-old could be better than what we’ve seen recently.
Even with that stat, he has been pretty lousy in July.
The .198 BABIP certainly means he is due to progress towards the mean. But what do his statcast numbers indicate?
We see a higher launch angle and an xwOBA that is only slightly better than what he currently has. His hard hit percentage is the second-worst of his career, while he also has a high strikeout rate and low walk rate. These are not necessarily things that point to great offensive production. Even though it has been three years since he has put up a 4+ fWAR, there is still plenty of potential in the bat.
The defense is another story. He is near the top-10 percentile when it comes to the outfielder jump but oddly is in the bottom-15 percentile in OOA. It appears that the injuries may have caused some damage to his elite defensive play as it now appears that he would be best as a corner outfielder.
Moving with Laureano would be Irvin, a starting pitcher who is following up a strong 2021 campaign with an equally impressive 2022 season. He owns a 3.05 ERA, which might be an overperformance when you look at his 3.83 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.44 xERA on the season. Still, there are four years of control that remain with the right-hander. He can eat innings and give your offense a chance in every game. His statcast stuff looks ugly and that should bring plenty of concern to Atlanta. But if the Braves want to monitor Spencer Strider‘s innings in 2022 then they need to be in the market for a starter who won’t break the bank. Irvin fits this role and you never know what sort of untapped potential the Braves developmental team can find.
From the Yankees side of the trade comes the prospects. Jasson Dominguez would be the big prize for Atlanta. Dominguez is a switch-hitter that generates high exit velocities from both sides of the plate, however, he appears to be a better hitter from the left side. He has plus-raw power but does hold a high whiff percentage. He was a plus-runner when he signed, but the speed has taken a step back due to the amount of weight he has put on since becoming a professional. The speed is still slightly above average, but there are questions about how fast and athletic he will be and if he will be able to stay in center field. Dominguez does have a plus arm and would at the very worst profile as a strong defensive corner outfielder. He just reached A+ at the age of 19 and could be a fixture in a major league lineup by his age 21 season, should he continue to flourish.
The Braves would also get shortstop prospect, Trey Sweeney, in the transaction, who was New York’s first-round selection in 2021. The 22-year-old has fantastic hand-eye coordination to go along with excellent pitch and strike zone recognition. He could be a 20+ home run player in the future with power to all fields. While Sweeney’s athleticism has been questioned, his arm profiles well for third base, while some evaluators won’t rule out the possibility of him staying at shortstop. He has struggled in High-A this year, but that shouldn’t deter teams from taking an interest in him.
The final prospect coming from the Yankees would be right-handed pitcher Luis Medina, who features a fastball that has topped out at 103 mph. He follows that with a curveball which some scouts believe is unhittable and perhaps a better offering than his fastball. He also throws a changeup in the low-90s with dive at the plate and splitter action. Like most prospects with big stuff, the 23-year-old will have to prove he can throw strikes. While he holds a 26.3 percent strikeout rate in Double-A, he also has a 13 percent walk rate. He doesn’t need perfect command to be a fantastic pitcher, but he will need to be more efficient if he wants to stick as a starter. He has the ceiling of an ace, but could easily wind up in a relief role if the walks don’t improve.
Finally, Atlanta would receive Joey Gallo as a low-risk, high-reward bat. I recently mentioned Gallo in a piece and you can find it here.
Atlanta would part with Harris and that would be a tough one to swallow. He’s been fantastic as a 21-year-old rookie doing everything and more than Braves fans could expect. But let’s look at his statcast.
He has an xwOBA of .329, which means he is due for some regression. Remember that Laureano has a .323 xwOBA above. xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play. Knowing the expected outcomes of each individual batted ball from a particular player over the course of a season — with a player’s real-world data used for factors such as walks, strikeouts, and times hit by a pitch — allows for the formation of said player’s xwOBA based on the quality of contact, instead of the actual outcomes. Likewise, this exercise can be done for pitchers to get their expected xwOBA against.
Harris is also just 21-year-old so it’s fair to assume that he’s only going to get better. But look back at the table above. Something a little worrisome is that he has managed a 3.8 percent walk rate which is less than half of what the average major league baseball player does. For what it’s worth, Jeff Francouer had a 4.2 percent walk rate and a 22.5 percent strikeout rate in 2005. Those numbers are eerily similar to what Harris has done in 2022. I’m not saying the Harris is Francouer 2.0, but there are some red flags.
New York would get Moll and Montas in the deal, and we discussed why earlier. I’m not going to go over the specifics of what each player does and why they help the Yankees, but Luis Severino was recently placed on the injured list while Aroldis Chapman has been lit up like a Christmas tree. This might be a good package that would entertain the Bronx Bombers.
Again, this isn’t a prediction. It’s a fun piece. Here is a way where I think Atlanta could remain competitive and rebuild its farm system for future trades or to develop itself to contribute. It’s a farfetched trade idea, but it would break the internet if it actually happened. The deadline is tomorrow. Let’s hope the below tweet comes to fruition.
Big Time Atlanta Sports 