The pickings are getting slim to find some new trade partners for the Atlanta Braves. I was going to write about acquiring David Peralta of the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday, and yesterday’s trade for Chris Martin was nixed when the right-hander was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers. That being said, some new information was leaked about Atlanta having some interest in an outfielder from the Kansas City Royals. For our seventh part of this series, let’s look at some outfielders who may be on the market and the fit they would have in Atlanta.
Trade 1:
Atlanta receives: OF Michael A. Taylor
Kansas City receives: RHP Brooks Wilson
We wrote about Brooks Wilson yesterday in our trade proposal to the Chicago Cubs. His value is stated and I really like this trade for the Royals more than the Braves. MLB’s Mark Feinsand reported on Saturday that Atlanta had shown interest in Michael A. Taylor.
The 31-year-old is enjoying the best offensive year of his career with a 109 OPS+ and 110 wRC+. Statcast, meanwhile, is less than impressed with his offensive output.
Sure, he has the normal great defense, but all of the blue in the offensive areas seem to indicate that Taylor is bound to regress to the mean. For what it’s worth, his expected batting average in 2022 is .229, which is right around his career average. His xwOBA, meanwhile, is .309, which is above his average mark for his career, but would still be much worse than what one would expect out of their starting outfielder.
So, if the Braves acquire Taylor the acquisition should be made solely for defensive purposes. He is one of the best defensive outfielders in the game and could easily give rookie Michael Harris II a break in center field every now and then. This would be a fine 4th outfielder move, but I fear that some may be stuck looking at his surface statistics and not what the numbers behind them really mean.
Trade 2:
Atlanta receives: OF Tommy Pham
Cincinnati receives: RHP Daysbel Hernández
After getting Joc Pederson in 2021, wouldn’t it be great to see his fantasy football arch-nemesis in Atlanta in 2022? Hopefully, reporters would be able to ask Tommy Pham about the legendary fantasy league weekly once September begins.
Pham is no doubt talented, but it is fair to wonder if his age is catching up with him. Here is his statcast data table:
He is still hitting the ball hard, but his xwOBA indicates that he is not doing everything else well enough to be a starting outfielder at this time. His strikeout rate is his highest mark since 2016, while the walk rate is the lowest of his career. Combine those two with his lowest xSLG and xwOBA of his career, and you have a guy who looks to be a shell of his former self.
But the exit velocity is still intriguing enough for the Braves to consider making a move. Perhaps helping the 34-year-old lay off pitches out of the zone would help him make a massive comeback and a feared hitter. Hey, the Braves have done it before. While Jorge Soler had impressive analytics in 2021, Eddie Rosario did not. We see how that worked out.
We mentioned that Pham’s value is not particularly high right now, which should make it no surprise that the return would be a 26-year-old reliever in the form of Daysbel Hernández, who is currently on the 60-day injured list.
Hernández has an upper 90s fastball with late, arm-side run. He has also been able to throw it with heavy sink but struggles with his below-average command. His secondary offering is his slider, which tops out at around 90 mph. The pitch is inconsistent but occasionally shows some sharpness with tilt and bit. This pitch is predominantly a chase pitch for the right-hander, but as with the fastball, the command is still something he struggles with. This sort of player is a lottery ticket for the Cincinnati Reds as he could turn into a high-leverage arm, or the command could never develop and he bounces between Triple-A and the majors attempting to have it all click one day.
Trade 3
Atlanta receives: Anthony Santander
Baltimore receives: LHP Tucker Davidson
I hate that I keep putting Tucker Davidson in trade packages, but I honestly think he is the best one to be traded by the Braves. Kyle Muller has jumped in front of him in prospect rankings, and he is a left-hander with 5-plus years of control. The Baltimore Orioles might not be sellers as they sit just three games back of a wildcard berth. But let’s assume that Baltimore believes it doesn’t have the horses to compete for a World Series in 2022 and would rather take one more trade deadline to acquire some pieces to help in the future and beyond.
Anthony Santander could be at his peak value right now. He currently has a 121 OPS+ and 121 wRC+. That’s pretty good and even his statcast numbers back up the performance. He is not as prone to strikeouts as most major leaguers, but he is also not at the plate looking to draw a walk.
His defense has left much to be desired, but if the Braves are looking at Ozuna and Rosario in left field at the moment, he certainly isn’t worse (which is sort of damning to the other two). The 27-year-old may not be available, however. Even if Baltimore decides to sell, they would still have the outfielder under contract for two more years. It would come down to whether the Orioles think they need pitching or outfield help more to compete in 2023 and beyond.
None of the trades above necessarily excite me, but they are options the Braves can consider when looking to make upgrades for a playoff push. Ultimately, it will come down to Atlanta’s analytics department to find out if these or other players can improve their play from earlier in the season and help Atlanta capture its fifth consecutive NL East title.
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