Braves Eight Days of Trades: Day 3

Over the first two days of this series, we have explored some ideas that would bring both a starting pitcher and an outfielder to the Atlanta Braves. But what if this time we split it up? Let’s look at two trades in this edition that would net the Braves one player from each trade. Remember, the Braves aren’t working with a lot of prospect capital, as we mentioned in our first trade offer involving the Kansas City Royals. So don’t expect Atlanta to come away with big names. Look for smaller pieces that will help fit the puzzle. Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, and Eddie Rosario were instrumental in Atlanta’s success in the postseason and in capturing the NL East crown. Yet many forget the headliner the Braves got at the trading deadline last year was Richard Rodriguez, who was left off the postseason roster and eventually non-tendered.

Trade 1

Atlanta receives: OF Joey Gallo

New York (AL) receives: RHP Alan Rangel

Like in our piece yesterday that had the Los Angeles Angels selling low on one of their former top prospects, this would be a similar trade for the New York Yankees. It’s been pretty well documented how bad Joey Gallo has been this year. Take a look at his MLB Statcast numbers since 2018:

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So what happened? Not only has his offense regressed, but so has his defense. The guy was never one to hit for a high batting average and was always prone to strikeouts. The good news is that it looks like he is still hitting the ball hard and is still drawing walks. Methinks it has something to do with his worst chase rate since 2018. Take a look at these numbers from FanGraphs:

This certainly lines up with the chase rate. He is swinging at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone and a higher percentage in general since his 2018 season. Other than that, there doesn’t appear to be anything else too out of the ordinary. The only other thing I could find that was a little off was his pull rate is also higher. But that’s beside the point.

The Yankees don’t want to give up on Gallo, but they may need to. He hasn’t been good for them and this is the best Yankees team that fans have seen in quite some time. Save me your “but the 2017 Yankees would have won the World Series” takes because even had they advanced, that 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers team was also stacked. This year might be the year to pull out all of the stops especially when you consider that Aaron Judge might not return in pinstripes for 2023. The point is the Yankees will have an opportunity to upgrade the outfield with notable players like Juan Soto, Andrew Benintendi, Trey Mancini, Ian Happ, and others available. When you have a team this good, you make it even better, if possible, to better your chances at a World Series.

So that’s New York’s side of it. Why would the Braves want Gallo? For starters, he is about as close to a Duvall replacement that you can find. For a while, Duvall was a poor man’s Gallo. The second thing is that it is fair to assume that the 28-year-old’s price is very affordable. The Yankees can’t ask for too much for a guy with a .285 wOBA when the market isn’t exactly looking for guys who have struggled offensively. Thirdly, what if the Braves can fix him? Gallo was basically a 3.0 bWAR player coming into 2022. Being away from New York has certainly helped athletes before. And even if they can’t, the worst Atlanta has done is lost a 24-year-old right-hander in Alan Rangel, who has a 5.57 ERA for the Double-A Mississippi Braves.

Certainly, there are more attractive options for 2022 than Joey Gallo, but this would be a low-risk, high-reward sort of return for Atlanta. Remember: Soler was hitting .192 with a .658 OPS for the Kansas City Royals before the Braves acquired him. A few months later, he was the 2021 World Series MVP.

Trade 2:

Atlanta receives: LHP José Quintana

Pittsburgh receives: INF Cal Conley

Go ahead and pencil me in for someone who doesn’t love José Quintana. Sure, there was a time when he was a dominant pitcher but that time has since passed. Despite that, the 33-year-old is having a bounceback season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He isn’t a coveted name at the deadline but is one that I expect to be moved. The Pirates aren’t going anywhere and Quintana won’t re-sign for cheap at the end of the year. Pittsburgh will look for the best offer it can get, and if he goes for much more than Cal Conley the Braves should back off.

But in this scenario let’s pretend that Conley is the piece that would go to Pittsburgh in exchange for the left-hander. Below you can see Quintana’s advanced data, courtesy of MLB Statcast.

He’s walking fewer guys but is also striking them out at his lowest rate since 2019. His expected ERA is only slightly worse than what his baseline stats indicate. Still, you should expect some regression. If Quintana is a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.20, that would still be an upgrade over Ian Anderson. Quintana is averaging a little over five innings per start in 2022 and would perhaps be able to perform a little better and limit the number of hits with a stellar Braves defense behind him. Perhaps in the scenario, he can average closer to six innings per start, which would be a tremendous relief for the Braves. He would be an upgrade, though not a sizeable one in my opinion.

In return, Pittsburgh gets Conley the Braves’ fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft. He is a switch-hitter with great bat-to-ball skills but is a better hitter from the left side. He is another one of the Braves draft picks on General Manager Alex Anthopoulos who is hit-over-power, though the Braves think there is pop in his bat.

The 22-year-old has above-average speed and very good instincts and is capable of playing a solid shortstop, though his arm profiles more as a second baseman. Conley’s most likely future is that of a big league utility man.

The Pirates might be able to get more for Quintana if the right team is desperate enough, but the Braves should balk at any price that seems rich for a 33-year-old pitcher who has been below league average since 2019. But if the price is right, it doesn’t hurt to roll the dice.